Draws and Fades: Who can still run down Scottie Scheffler… and why they probably won’t
Before a ball was hit this week, I went out on the plank and declared Scottie Scheffler a fade this week. Now I’m having nightmares of the Texan in a pirate’s costume, digging me with a cutlass while the hungry sharks swim below.
To be fair, declaring Scheffler’s +400 pre-tournament odds a fade proved to be the right call. But only if you jumped on and backed him at some point when he blew out as high as +1600 early in the second round.
After an 8-under 63 on Saturday, Scheffler was giving the rest of the RBC Heritage field nightmares of their own.
It moved the world No. 1 to 16-under for the week as he chases a fourth win in his last five starts, including THE PLAYERS and last week’s Masters Tournament. No player has won the direct week after winning a major since Tiger Woods in 2006.
Scheffler leads by one from Sepp Straka and is two clear of the man he beat at Augusta National in Collin Morikawa.
Sahith Theegala, Patrick Rodgers and Masters runner-up Ludvig Åberg share fourth at 13-under, giving Scheffler a three-shot head start on Sunday. Seamus Power, Patrick Cantlay, J.T. Poston and Tom Hoge round out those within four of the lead.
Scheffler is now -150 to win on Sunday – a fate that appears very likely indeed.
“Yeah, it feels inevitable at this point,” Rodgers said. He’s amazing hitting the ball.”
Morikawa and Straka are next best at +650 odds.
Here’s the BetMGM Sportsbook board:
* -150: Scottie Scheffler (- 16, 1st) )
* + 650: Colin Morikawa (-14, 3rd)
* +650: Sepp Straka (-15, 2nd)
* +1000: Ludvig Åberg (-13, T4)
* +1800: Sahith Theegala (- 13, T4)
* +2500: Patrick Cantlay (-12, T7)
* +3300: Patrick Rogers (-13, T4)
* +4500: J.T. Poston (-12, T7)
* +5500: Tom Hoge (-12, T7)
Here are some pros and cons for those who think I have little chance.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (-150, first )
Case for : Where do we start? Leader in strokes gained: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, and ranks second with three wins in his last four starts. Wins at Bay Hill, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National. If Scheffler doesn’t win, there will be a guardian inspection.
Example: I’m writing a story here... maybe beyond the weight of the story? No player has won the championship since Tiger Woods in 2006. Reach #50 for SG: Around-the-Green this week. Is that the problem?? Never miss a green!
COLLIN MORIKAWA (+650, 3rd)
Case: This week SG: 11th green, SG: 6th putt, best two-time winner. I am a Scheffler Challenge candidate. Is T7 still here in 2021?
Struggle: His fair game is back to 43, and if he can’t find it on the green, he won’t have a chance to lead. T3 at the Masters puts him in the top 10 for the first time since The Sentry in early January.
SEPP STRAKA (+650, second)
Is: 5th in SG: Makes tee shots -to green and all shots Over 25. Straka is playing golf. He also leads in driving accuracy, birdie total, penetration, four points and back nine. As a two-time TOUR champion and Ryder Cup winner, he’s no stranger to pressure on Sunday.
Counter: He misses the par 5 (T50) hole that missed five putts from 10 feet. . Sunday will be his day.
LUDVIG ÅBERG (+1000, T4)
Example: Åberg is an outstanding player who has won the PGA TOUR, the DP World Tour and the Ryder Cup. He finished second at the Masters in his debut and missed a three-putt this week. He is currently T2 in GIR this week, ranking for Par 5s Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach. He’s got the firepower inside.
Counter: He didn’t make a birdie when he hit the putt inside 125 yards, so he had to back off the tee! SG: Around the Green 58, SG: Putting 43. He needs to make more putts to compete.
SAHITH THEEGALA (+1800, T4)
Why: Theegala is third in the field with a 9-point average in the first half, so he will come out under pressure early. . He finished 10 under par at the other end of the field. Range is also 3 miles.
Note: T64 driving accuracy is poor this week. To attack more, you need to find short grass.
