LeBron James is one of the greatest players in the history of sports, let alone the NBA. He’s won championships with three different franchises, the Los Angeles Lakers included, and is the epitome of versatility, longevity, and statistical brilliance.
Having acknowledged how great of a player he is, there’s a fact that must be faced head-on ahead of the 2024-25 season: James’ jump shot has produced a startling trend.
It’s a difficult bit of constructive criticism to provide coming off of a season during which James shot a career-best 41.0 percent from beyond the arc. That fact actually fuels the concern, however, as high points have typically signaled the beginning of a regression to the mean.
A career 34.8 percent shooter from beyond the arc, James has spent the past 12 seasons reaching impressive highs and then rapidly declining, often for multiple years at a time.
It’s a strange trend of consistent inconsistency from a player who has otherwise been a metronome in basketball player form.
LeBron James must find consistency with trendily inconsistent jump shot
After shooting a then career-best 40.6 percent from beyond the arc in 2012-13, James’ percentage decreased across three consecutive seasons. It eventually plummeted to 30.9 percent, which one would normally be comfortable calling a statistical outlier.
Unfortunately, after spiking to 36.3 and 36.7 percent the next two seasons, it fell precipitously to 33.9 percent in 2018-19—thus continuing the pattern.
The trend continues from there, as the percentages climb to 34.8 in 2019-20 and 36.5 in 2020-21, only for the downward spiral to resume in 2021-22. James knocked down 35.9 percent of his attempts that season before hitting a woefully low 32.1 percent in 2022-23.
Burying a career-best 41.0 percent of his attempts in 2023-24 is undeniably promising, as well as a remarkable feat, but James’ career habit of regressing as a shooter after an efficient season must end.
Many of those percentages are obviously strong enough to be happy with, but three different regressions to 33.9 percent shooting or worse are tough to overlook. As the Lakers install a motion offense under head coach JJ Redick, consistency from James in an off-ball role will be essential.
That doesn’t mean James will exclusively or even primarily play without the ball, but bucking the trend of immediate regression would give Redick the optimal opportunity to build a contender in 2024-25.
James shot 33.6 percent on pull-up threes and an astonishing 47.3 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts in 2023-24. Burying nearly 50 percent of his threes in an off-ball capacity is clearly unsustainable, but if he can maintain an efficient percentage, Los Angeles will have a much easier time preserving his energy for the postseason.
If James’ jump shot experiences its regular regression after spiking at an efficient level, however, the uncharted territory of a soon-to-be 40-year-old player maintaining an All-NBA quality of play will be far more difficult to navigate for team and player alike.
