The NFL’s regular season is over, which for most teams, means it’s time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.
NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months.
We’ve officially come up with our own contract projections for the NFL’s top free agents that include context behind each player’s 2023 season, the likelihood of a franchise tag, the projection itself, and the first-year cap hit for a team that’s “all-in” and is needing to reduce that first-year hit in order to maximize their cap dollars.
So, without further ado, let’s check out the projection for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman has been the engine that has kept the Colts’ passing game running through seven starting quarterbacks over four years. In 2023 he took his game to another level, hitting career highs in targets (150), receptions (109), yards (1,152) and yards per route run (2.04).
Since 2021 there have been 11 receivers who at this point have veteran deals who logged at least 150 targets in a season. Nine of those receivers have APYs of $20 million or more. Pittman isn’t as dynamic as that group, but he is as reliable as they come with a career catch rate of over 71 percent. The missing link for him is just a lack of scoring with just 15 touchdowns in four years.
- Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
- 3 years, $66.0 million, $22.0 APY, $37M GTD
- Year One Cap Hit: $6.5 million
